Alabama Stakes 2014; Who Could Possibly Derail Stopchargingmaria?
Alabama Stakes 2014; Who Could Possibly Derail Stopchargingmaria?: The 2014 Alabama looks like a very deep field this year. One filly stands out, and is clearly the horse to beat; Stopchargingmaria. There are some very good fillies in here with good credentials and could possible take down one of the top three-year-old fillies in the country. Let’s look at the chance of each filly in the race and I will give you make top picks at the end.
Unbridled Forever – Only off the board in one of her seven starts, she has only two wins in her seven starts. She finished second last out to the favorite here in Stopchargingmaria, but this filly has run into Untapable most of the year, and I think if she could shake loose of the two top fillies, she could get another win. 5of 7 starts have been in graded stakes company, and I know this filly has a big one in her, and maybe the 1 ¼ mile is exactly what she needs, given her distance loving pedigree.
Miss Besilu – this filly is fast, and fast over some ground. Last out, she led almost the whole way in the Coaching Club American Oaks, but gave way to Stopchargingmaria and Unbridled Forever in the stretch, only to hang on for a distant third place finish. Her best win was an allowance race at Gulfstream going 1 1/16 miles, and given her running style, I don’t think the deeper surface at Saratoga, along with the 1 ¼ mile will favor her too well.
America – from the last crop of A.P. Indy, America hasn’t registered a win since breaking her maiden last year at Belmont. She is a late running filly, any maybe she hasn’t been getting the pace scenarios she needs, but maybe she is just a cut below. The 1 ¼ miles may be her to liking, and she will have more distance to be able to register a win, but if I had to chose a filly to win, America would not be it.
Joint Return – well traveled, and well versed in the skill of winning. She has four wins in seven lifetime starts. She hasn’t beaten the best competition, but she knows how to win. She has been entered in the Monmouth Oaks, only to be scratched to target this race. Trainer John Servis knows his filly, and must see a lot in the filly. The Monmouth Oaks could have been hers for the taking, but here she is, in a much deeper field, hoping to register a fifth win in eight starts. I would consider using her underneath
Got Lucky – another filly from the last crop of A.P. Indy, Got Lucky hasn’t been so lucky, and has had a bit of seconditis. She has a maiden and an allowance win, with the allowance win coming last out at Saratoga last month. She is stepping back into graded stakes competition after not fairing well in the Kentucky Oaks, in which she finished 7th. There is talent there, and the 1 ¼ miles may be to her liking more than anyone else. I would consider boxing her in an exacta.
Fortune Pearl – Last out, Fortune Pearl could be fount winning the Delaware Oaks over fellow opponent Joint Return. Being a grade two winner, the best this filly could rack up in grade one competition was a third place in the Black-Eyed Susan. Stepping back up into the lime light of grade one competition, this filly seems to have something there, talent wise, but can she hang with the likes of this field?
Catch My Drift – Chad Brown is either crazy or seems a lot of talent and potential in this filly. Catch my Drift is on a two race win streak, but those wins came in her maiden score and an allowance score. The filly has a lot of stamina on both sides, but can she hang with this field? I am going to say “not yet.” She has the pedigree, the connections, and the potential to be a good filly, but throwing her in here is basically throwing her to the wolves to destroy.
Stopchargingmaria – the filly to beat for sure! This Tale of the Cat filly has been dominating since she has been unbothered by Untapable. She is coming into the Alabama on a two race win streak, which started in the Black-Eyed Susan and was continued through the Coaching Club American Oaks. Having two wins and a second over the Saratoga track is a plus for her. She obviously likes the surface, and I think the only downfall she may have is the 1 ¼ miles distance. I am a bit worried that will be the reason she gets beat. The filly is tough and fights on and on, but Tale of the Cat usually doesn’t loan a lot of stamina to his progeny. Can Stopchargingmaria continue on her quest to beat out Untapable for the 3-year-old filly championship?
Size – a filly on the rise, Size has never finished off the board in her four starts. Recently winning her first graded stakes race, the Iowa Oaks, Size has so much potential. Like her component Joint Return, Size was scratched from the Monmouth Oaks to run here, in the Alabama. Bill Mott knows he has something good, and throwing her in here could be the perfect breakthrough moment for the filly. Size is a live shot, and I would say she may be one of the biggest threats to Stopchargingmaria.
If I had to choose a filly to take down Stopchargingmaria, I could see a few options, but my top two would be Size and Got Lucky. I believe they have the best pedigrees for the distance, and the talent is there for sure. Stopchargingmaria is obviously the deserving favorite, and that will put these fillies at a bigger price, and I would love to get either of these at about 6-1 or 7-1, and higher odds are always welcome. The Alabama will be a very interesting race, and we will see just how serious of a racehorse Stopchargingmaria is.
The G1 $600,000 Alabama Stakes for three-year-old fillies at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt is the 10th race of the day at Saratoga on Saturday. August 16, 2014.
Alabama Stakes 2014 Post Positions & Odds
1 Unbridled Forever 4-1
2 Miss Besilu 15-1
3 America 15-1
4 Joint Return 15-1
5 Got Lucky 5-1
6 Fortune Pearl 8-1
7 Catch My Drift 12-1
8 Stopchargingmaria 2-1
9 Size 5-1