Kentucky Derby 2014 Picks, Predictions, Plays
Kentucky Derby 2014 Picks, Predictions, Plays: The 2014 Kentucky Derby Presented By Yum Brands takes place this Saturday, May 3rd, 2014 at Churchill Downs in grand ole’ Louisville, Kentucky. The race is for 20 three-year-olds who have pushed, pulled and ran their hearts out for points to line up in the starting gate running 1 1/4 miles for the first time in their lives with a purse of $2,000,000. SEE UPDATED RESULTS & REPLAY
Kentucky Derby 2014 Picks and Predictions with Kari & Sigi:
Sigi’s Top Five 2014 Kentucky Derby Picks (@sigimendoza):
1. Intense Holiday – Harlan’s Holiday/Intensify/Unbridled’s Song – Todd Pletcher- 14-1 odds: This boy was hurt in the Louisiana Derby by the lack of pace , and he was forced to run near the lead, chasing Vicar’s in Trouble. The race was over when he hit the rail in the stretch. He hasn’t run since that effort, but it seems that he really likes Churchill Downs track; his last workout indicates that. He has the post position #16 that will allow him to rate and make a big closing move.
2. Ride on Curlin Curlin/Magical Ride/Storm Cat – William Gowan – 15-1 odds. This guy hasn’t had a bad race this year. Maybe many people are worried for the #19 post position, but his best efforts were coming off the pace. I think the distance is not a concern and Calvin Borel in the irons is a plus because he knows how to win a Derby. His last workout was great and his connections are pretty optimistic.
3. Wicked Strong Hard Spun/Moyne Abbey/Charismatic – James Jerkens -7-1 odds. He won in a very good style in the Wood Memorial. He runs like a grinder, and that’s not a bad thing, because if the pace is hot, he’ll be able to maintain his speed and pass all the tired horses to win the Derby. Maybe the post #19 is going to hurt him, but if I’ll Have Another did it by #19 pp, why not Wicked Strong?
4. Medal Count Dynaformer/Brisquette/Unbridled’s Song – Dale Romans – 23-1 odds. Maybe he’s not the fastest horse of the field, but he’s able to run all the day. If you watch the Fountain of Youth race, it was a very good effort because he was forced to deal with a speed biased track, where the closers had no chance. He’s improving race by race and is eligible to peak in the Derby. His last workout at Churchill Downs was excellent and convinced his trainer.
5. General A Rod Roman Ruler/Dynamite Eyes/Dynaformer – Michael Maker – 29-1 odds.The General, is another horse who was really hurt by the Gulfstream speed biased track. He was third in the Florida Derby always running near the lead (It was the only way to win at Gulfstream Park this year), and I think he can turn the tables at Churchill Downs. His best effort was coming off the pace, and if it’s hot, his chances increase a lot.
Sigi’s Play: The Kentucky Derby is always a tough race to pick a winner. In this case I’m using a Daily Double starting in the Derby 8-14-16-19-20/3-6-7. I hope you leave with your pockets full!
Kari’s Top Five 2014 Kentucky Derby Picks (@horseflynawall):
1. Candy Boy – Candy Ride/She’s An Eleven/In Excess – John Sadler trainer- 16-1 odds. This guy needs to take a huge step forward. Since breaking his maiden after his fourth try, he’s never been off the board. He’s got the dosage and pedigree to run all day and he put in a nice work at Churchill of 5f in 1:00.80, 5/69 on 4/26. He was up too close in the Santa Anita Derby with the speed favoring track. It sounds like Sadler wants to have him back more midpack as he can run very even for a long distance. I think he needed that last race and didn’t bust a lung, A-plus with Gary Stevens on board and this redhot will be ready to roll in the stretch. Exits post #18 and I have to say I’m not thrilled with this post. He’s my sentimental favorite though and I hope he hits.
2. Danza – Street Boss/Champagne Royale/French Deputy – Todd Pletcher tainer- 9-1 odds. This colt is an enigma for me. Very lightly raced after some time off last year. Second time off the layoff goes out at 41-1 and wins the Arkansas Derby. He found a second gear there that impressed me scraping the paint. Street Boss, was a (G1) Sprinter, who is a son of Street Cry, winner of the 2002 Dubai World Cup at 10f and the sire of Zenyatta. He also has a half-brother, Majestic Harbor, who won the 1 1/2 Toyko City Stakes at Santa Anita a few weeks ago, so could get the 10f. Worked 4f in 48.80 on April 27th , 11/59. I’m going with peaking at the right time 3rd run off a layoff. Could spring a huge upset Saturday from door #4 with Joe Bravo riding.
3. Intense Holiday – Harlan’s Holiday/Intensify/Unbridled’s Song – Todd Pletcher trainer- 14-1 odds. The Louisiana Derby was a doozy of bumbles for this guy between crossingfiring leads. If he can overcome that I think he has a huge chance here with his nice closing punch and turn of foot. His last work was on this track going 4f in 48.60, 7/58 outworking stablemate We Miss Artie. With a change of tactics here, this guy could come blowing up the track for a piece. Gets the auxillary gate, which now-a-days I like with post #16 and Velazquez in the irons.
4. Commanding Curve – Master Command/Mother/Lion Hearted – Dallas Stewart trainer- 31-1 odds. For what it’s worth this guy has a first, second and third over Churchill oval so he’s been in the money there 100% of the time. Even though that last race in the Lousiana Derby was a little slower than it looked, he got bumped at the start, was at the very back and made up enough room around the final turn to finish in third. Prior he worked out for two months before he ran in the Risen Star where he came from the back weaving through a 14-horse field for sixth. He’s inbred to Buckpasser and through Secretariat from his daughters so can we say “tough as nails”. Has been training at Churchill since early April with three very nice works on the track. Not sure about a win, but dangerous to throw out of exotics from stall #17 S. Brigmohan up to ride.
5. Medal Count – Dynaformer/Brisquette/Unbridled’s Song – Dale Romans – 23-1 odds with the defection of Hoppertunity this guy moved up the ranks for me. If Dale Romans is as high on him as he’s stating, I am looking for him to hit. He had a recent nice work over the track and last out beat Pablo Del Monte in the Blue Grass Stakes with a giant run to hit second behind Dance With Fate. He is coming off 3 races in 29 days but he’s going in the exacta for me from the #14 hole with Albarado riding.
Kari’s Play: Well, with Hoppertunity out my boy gets the #17 hole and I’m not digging that as this post has never won. However, he’s my sentimental pick and I really hope he runs his heart out. Gary Stevens has stated he has about five rumps he’s going to target and stalk, so here’s to hoping they can hit. California Chrome is the one to beat and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win. However, I don’t like his odds and am playing against as he’s the oreo cookie between speed here. For the rest of the race, since there is now speed on the outside with Pablo Del Monte, I’m going with some closers in my picks. My plays are $2 exacta part-wheel with 4,18/4,13,14,16,17,18 with money across the board on #18 Candy Boy as my backup bet.
On May 17, 1875 before an estimated crowd of 10,000, a field of 15 three-year-olds contested the first Derby. Under jockey Oliver Lewis, a colt named Aristides, who was trained by future Hall of Famer Ansel Williamson, won the inaugural Derby. Later that year, Lewis rode Aristides to a second-place finish in the Belmont Stakes.
In 1973, and this record still holds today, Secretariat ran the 1 1/4 miles in 1:59.25 which blew out the record set by Northern Dancer in 1964. So for 40 years, not one colt has been able to beat his time. Pretty amazing. On top of that, his uniqueness lies in each of the three Triple Crown Races that year where in each successive quarter, his times were faster. In 1973 Sham finished second to Secretariat and times for non-winners were not recorded so I’m sure he blew a lung too since he finished 2 1/2 lengths behind for an under two-minute run. The only other sub-two-minute finish was set in 2001 by Monarchos at 1:59.97.
Derby participants are limited to three-year-old horses. No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Derby without having raced at age two. Hence the “Apollos Curse” we hear everyone talking about when the three-year-olds started racing in 2014 with no 2 year-old racing foundation.
The 2014 Kentucky Derby is the 11th race of the day with a 6:24 PM EDT post time and will be aired on NBC from 4:00-7:00 PM.
Kentucky Derby 2014 Odds and Post Positions
1 post#2 Vicar’s In Trouble 20-1 and Rosie Napravnik
2 post#3 Harry’s Holiday 50-1 and Corey Lanerie
3 post#4 Uncle Sigh 30-1 and Irad Ortiz, Jr.
4 post#5 Danza 8-1 and Joe Bravo
5 post#6 California Chrome 5-2 and Victor Espinoza
6 post#7 Samraat 15-1 and Jose Ortiz
7 post#8 We Miss Artie 50-1 and Javier Castellano
8 post#9 General A Rod 15-1 and Joel Rosario
9 post#10 Vinceremos 30-1 and Joe Rocco, Jr.
10 post#11 Wildcat Red 15-1 and Luis Saez
Hoppertunity 6-1 and Mike Smith SCRATCHED
12 post#12 Dance With Fate 20-1 and Corey Nakatani
13 post#13 Chitu 20-1 and Martin Garcia
14 post#14 Medal Count 20-1 and Robby Albarado
15 post#15 Tapiture 12-1 and Ricardo Santana Jr.
16 post#16 Intense Holiday 8-1 and John Velazquez
17 post#17 Commanding Curve 50-1 Shaun Bridgmohan
18 post#18 Candy Boy 15-1 and Gary Stevens
19 post#19 Ride On Curlin 15-1 and Calvin Borel
20 post#20 Wicked Strong 6-1 and Rajiv Maragh
Pablo Del Monte 50-1 and Jeffrey Sanchez SCRATCHED