Danzing Candy Draws Wide in Kentucky Derby 142

Danzing Candy Draws Wide in Kentucky Derby 142: Outside post positions in two-turn routes tend to force speed horses such as Danzing Candy to clear the field and set the pace. For instance, if Danzing Candy fails to clear from the No. 20 post position in the Kentucky Derby (GI) at Churchill Downs on Saturday, he will become caught wide going into the first turn.

Trained by Clifford Sise Jr., and owned by Halo Farms and Jim and Dianne Bashor, Danzing Candy currently holds three wins out of five races, with one of them a graded stakes victory. He never finished second, third or fourth yet.

Sise, who had bad luck with his Derby hopeful Prospect Park last year (he had an elevated white blood cell count), hoped for a post position outside of the speed for Danzing Candy before the post draw.

“The draw is very important,” Sise said. “(Post) 10 would be perfect; that way he loads second-to-last, and if the other speed in the race drew inside of us that also would be perfect. Every post he has drawn, he has drawn inside of a speed horse, so we’ve had to send him.”

“He will (go to the lead) on his own, but we’ve never had the opportunity to draw outside and lope around and lay second.”

Outwork is considered the other main speed threat and drew post No. 15, although it must be noted trainer Todd Pletcher worked him behind horses at Belmont Park and may not be so quick to send his horse into a speed duel.

Besides Outwork, the expected favorite Nyquist owns plenty of early speed, if the jockey wishes to utilize it. The undefeated star can also rate, as evidenced by his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) win where he closed from eighth.

To his advantage, Danzing Candy’s pilot will be Hall of Famer Mike Smith, who knows how to let speed horses run their way. Smith does not play a game of tug of war with this kind of runner, and while handicappers will disagree, not fighting a speed horse helps because the horse spends less energy fighting his jockey and relaxes.

Also to Danzing Candy’s credit, two starts ago he scored an impressive front-running victory in the San Felipe Stakes (GII) at Santa Anita Park, over Mor Spirit and Exaggerator, two horses who should go off at lower odds.

The hype died down once Danzing Candy faded to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (GI), but he also set a brutal pace according to TimeformUS pace figures. The numbers read 163, 157 and 134 in the chart. Considering on their scale a 130 means a lively tempo, a 163 translates into an expected collapse, and he understandably was tired.

Some handicappers believe he also faded because of his pedigree. Twirling Candy won plenty of route races and should not find trouble siring a 10-furlong stakes winner. As for the bottom half, the damsire is Songandaprayer, who most label as a sprinter influence. In other words, looking at the bloodlines will only make matters confusing.

Even if his true talent lies at shorter distances, sometimes milers can go 10 furlongs on an uncontested lead, like Haynesfield did in the 2010 Jockey Club Gold Cup (GI) when he defeated Blame. If a wire-to-wire winner happens, there is no better Derby year than this one, where it feels like 80-percent of these contenders are closers.

Those who support Danzing Candy will get their value, as the public is focusing on Exaggerator out of the Santa Anita Derby group. Danzing Candy fits best on the top of tickets or in the second slot. Leave this horse out of the underneath positions, as he feels like a Game On Dude-type at the moment and will fade sharply if not win.

Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions 2016
Race 12 6:34 p.m. ET
Horse-Odds-Jockey-Trainer
1 Trojan Nation 50-1 Gryder/Gallagher
2 Suddenbreakingnews 20-1 Quinonez/Von Hemel
3 Creator 10-1 Santana, Jr./Asmussen
4 Mo Tom 20-1 Lanerie/Amoss
5 Gun Runner 10-1 Geroux/Asmussen
6 My Man Sam 20-1 Ortiz, Jr./Brown
7 Oscar Nominated 50-1 Leparoux/Maker
8 Lani 30-1 Take/Matsunaga
9 Destin 15-1 Castellano/Pletcher
10 Whitmore 20-1 Espinoza/Moquett
11 Exaggerator 8-1 Desormeaux/Desormeaux
12 Tom’s Ready 30-1 Hernandez, Jr./Stewart
13 Nyquist 3-1 Gutierrez/O’Neill
14 Mohaymen 10-1 Alvarado/McLaughlin
15 Outwork 15-1 Velazquez/Pletcher
16 Shagaf 20-1 Rosario/Brown
17 Mor Spirit 12-1 Stevens/Baffert
18 Majesto 20-1 Jaramillo/Delgado
19 Brody’s Cause 12-1 Saez/Romans
20 Danzing Candy 15-1 Smith/Size, Jr.