2016 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Thoughts & Theories

2016 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands Thoughts & Theories by Kari Ward & Sigi Mendoza: Here are again, at the pinnacle of horse racing with the 2016 Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont right around the corner. It seems like yesterday, when we were all standing around cheering, laughing and crying when American Pharoah won last year’s triple crown series. In the process, he accomplished a feat no horse had done in 37 years. As horse racing fans, we couldn’t have asked for a better way to draw more interest to this wonderful sport.

The 2016 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (Grade 1) Run for the Roses is this Saturday, May 7th and they will be shelling out $2,000,000 for 3 year-olds running 1 ¼ miles on the dirt. We have seven graded stakes races on a full card of thirteen. Hopefully, we have a full field of 20 horses lined up to start.

The first race is set to start at 10:30 a.m., EST. The first of the graded stakes get rolling with Race #6, the GIII Pat Day Mile Stakes, followed by the GII Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes, the GI Humana Distaff, GII American Turf Stakes, GII Churchill Downs Stakes, G1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and the Coup De Gras, the GI Kentucky Derby, which is the 11th race of the day with a start time of 6:24 EST.

This year, Sigi Mendoza and I have decided to take a crack at who has a true shot to win this race and/or hit the top four spots for exactas, trifectas and superfectas. Without post positions drawn or odds, its harder to make a wager up ahead of time to play, so we will be skipping that part. However, you can check either of our Twitter feed Saturday for posts on plays. You can follow Sigi @sigiman or myself @horseflynawall.

Personally, I only have three that I like to actually win this race. Destin, Nyquist & Mor Spirit. There are a few I can envision hitting the board and under I will be using Outwork, Whitmore & Tom’s Ready in my trifecta.

My top pick for this year is the lightly raced colt from the Todd Pletcher Barn, Destin. The son of Giant’s Causeway/Dream of Summer recently blew out seven rivals in the GII Tampa Bay Derby setting a track and stakes record for 1 1/16 in 1:42.82. He beat stablemate Outwork & Brody’s Cause, whom both won their derby preps next out, which legitimizes the race. His time in the Sam F. Davis was 1:43.67, at the same distance, so we do see improvement. The cons are his possible affinity for the Tampa Bay surface, with the two wins there, he’s never ran past 1 1/16 (which I have no problem with) and the 80 day layoff. Can Destin fire fresh? Pletcher is sneaky sometimes and breeds confidence coming into Triple Crown races.

Nyquist, the multiple Grade I winner from the sire Uncle Mo, comes in undefeated and looking like he deserves to be the favorite, as well as the one to beat. He seems to have the best tactical speed of the field and will definitely be using that to his advantage. Trainer Doug O’Neill has been sending him on longer works and training sessions, which he’ll need, as he’s coming in of a sprint and one route race. Not much else to say about this gritty champion. I am going to use him defensively and also hope to beat him. His only cons that I can even come up with are will he relish the distance and odds.

Bob Baffert sends in the son of Eskendereya this year, Mor Spirit, who enters this race with seven runs on his resume, never finishing worse than second. If he can get into high gear sooner and show more kick at the quarter-pole, he has a very good chance to win this race. Gary Stevens gets the call on this hard-nosed grinder and he’ll know exactly where to place him at the right time. The distance is right up his alley, the pace-scenario sets up well for him and he should have decent odds. My con on him is that Sigi is on him and I have to take a stand somewhere. (Kidding) Not much con on this one either for me, just needs to get involved in the race sooner to pick up the win.

Yes, I like Whitmore to run into one of the top spots and NOT because of Espinoza riding. This son of Pleasantly Perfect/Melody’s Spirit/Scat Daddy (surprised?) has that explosive turn of foot in the stretch he has shown in his last three races and that is all you need to hit the board turning for home in the Kentucky Derby. In the Arkansas Derby he had to check early and drop back after a bad start. He’ll also need to be up closer early and should get first run on the closers if he can show more tactical speed this time around. His connections, which include a great trainer in Ron Moquett, plan for a more aggressive ride on the first Saturday in May, I’m not leaving him off a ticket. My cons on him are his propensity for trouble and running for second. He should hit the board though if he gets a decent ride and decent post.

The other son of Uncle Mo I like coming into this race, is Outwork. The Pletcher barn didn’t fare to well last year in the Kentucky Derby and I think he’ll run in the top 3 with both Destin and Outwork this year. They both came out of the Tampa Bay Derby in first and second, so why not here? Outworks recent work was very nice, where he reportedly rated and passed his workmates. If Danzing Candy defects, it will be interesting to see if he is the controlling speed. I’m using. Con’s are he’s also very lightly raced and who did he beat in the Wood Memorial?

Tom’s Ready had a nice second place finish in the Louisiana Derby and he has had several good races at Churchill Downs. Trainer Dallas Stewart knows how to get horses geared up for these races, maybe not to win, but to at least hit the board. Not playing the Dallas Stewart longshot plodder may find you with ticket confetti in your hair. I’m not leaving him out of my trifecta.

If anyone wants to beat Nyquist, they need to be within three lengths of him at the top of the stretch. I don’t envision a late closer catching him, and there are a lot in here. Strictly based on competition alone, Nyquist and Destin stand out to me. Combined, they have beaten the winners of the Bluegrass, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and the Fountain of Youth.

My hopeful scenario is for Destin, who has shown some nice versatility, to be in the hunt at the top of the stretch. I envision Danzing Candy with the lead turning for home with 3 horses primed to make their stretch drive, Nyquist, Mor Spirit and Destin. If the latter two wear Nyquist down, game over and hopefully Destin gets his nose on the wire first. With Outwork sitting of the pace, I hope, the pace should be modest. The screws will be tightened on Destin and he will be fresh and ready to fire a big shot in the derby. My hope is he wins one for his brother Creative Cause, who was 5th in the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Will he be sporting the roses on May 7^th? I guess we’ll all just have to watch and wager.

Okay Sigi my man, take it away…….

Nyquist: Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry

Although his pedigree suggest he would suffer at 1 ¼ mile, Nyquist is a win machine. He only knows to win and win and looks like he can overcome his pedigree. The speed figures believers are not confident with him, but when a horse has a heart of a champion, always find a way to win. Nyquist has tactical speed, an excellent weapon in this kind of races. Surely we will see him fighting in the Churchill Downs stretch and would be the deserving favorite.

Mor Spirit: Eskendereya – I’m a Dixie Girl by Dixie Union

I’ve been following this horse for a while and his running style suits perfect to win a Derby. Mor Spirit is a grinder, and looks like he wants to go long. I’m drawing a line to his Santa Anita Derby performance, because it seems he did not like that sloppy track. Mor Spirit is by Eskendereya, a horse who was the favorite to win the race for the roses, but got injured a before the race. Eskendereya was sold to Japan in 2015, as usually happens, when a Stallion is sold overseas, he inmmediately produce a very nice horse. For example, Victory Gallop, Tiz Wonderful, Lion Heart, etc.

Gun Runner: Candy Ride – Quiet Giant by Giant’s Causeway

Another horse with slow speed figures and dream trips, especially in the Louisiana Derby. It is true that the Louisiana Derby has not produced a Derby winner in years (The last one was Grindstone in 1996) but Gun Runner is a horse who always avoid troubles and that’s a huge advantage in a 20 horse field. Looks like the 10 furlongs would not be a problem for this horse.

Suddenbreakingnews: Mineshaft –Uchitel by Afleet Alex

Probably the real 10 furlongs horse of the race, he would appreciate a hot pace in this 142nd Kentucky Derby edition. As a closer, he might find traffic, but if the pace collapses, his chances would increase exponentially. Suddenbreakingnews has run in full field races, certainly a good experience to face the Derby.

Exaggerator: Curlin –Dawn Raid, by Vindication

Exaggerator was impressive in the Santa Anita Derby, winning by 6 ¼ lengths. Now the question is: The horse peaked at the right moment, or he just took advantage of a muddy track? I’m in favor of the second option. However, is always good to include a muddy lover in your plays because If rains, Exaggerator would very tough to beat.

Best of luck to everyone in the post position draw this week and to all the runners on the card on Saturday, May 7th. See you at the track!