Kentucky Derby Top 10: Casey’s Picks

Kentucky Derby Top 10: Casey’s Picks: I know I said I would not move Mohaymen from the top spot last week, however, he looked like he was spinning his wheels a bit in the Florida Derby, and I am worried something might be wrong. Everything has been going so perfect for Mohaymen and his connections, and now, they have to regroup and figure out what was wrong in the Florida Derby. Maybe it was the wet dirt, or maybe it was something else. However, could a heavier track pose a challenge for this colt? If so, could the quirkiness of the Churchill Downs track pose a problem?

Let’s look at how my list has changed with the news of Destin taking 8 weeks layoff into the Derby, Oscar Nominated getting points and booting Zulu off the list, and the Nyquist and Mohaymen facing off in the Florida Derby. Multiple probable starters for the Wood Memorial make the race a bit more appealing; with Outwork, Flexibility, Shagaf, Cherry Wine, and Malibu Sunset possibly running, anything is possible.

Mor Spirit (Eskendereya – I’m a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union; 44 points) Mor Spirit is normally a slow horse in the mornings and faster in the afternoons. However, in his last four works, Mor Spirit has been working willingly, usually working in company. Whether Baffert wants him to have a bit more speed or what, I like that his last three works were ranked 4th of 43 at 6F, 2nd of 29 at 4F, and 1st of 20 at 5F. Mor Spirit will only get better with distance and age. I am excited for his future potential, even if he doesn’t win the Kentucky Derby.

Mohaymen (Tapit – Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union; 80 points) I know I said that win, lose, or draw, I wouldn’t move Mohaymen from spot one, but him spinning his wheels on a heavier track worries me. I have seen horses that enjoy shallower tracks and truly don’t like how deep Churchill Downs can be. It also could be that it was the wet dirt. Rain is always a huge possibility in Louisville in May. Could he be a horse who needs a fast track?

Gun Runner (Candy Ride – Quiet Giant, by Giant’s Causeway; 151 points) Gun Runner is the first foal of the $3 million Keeneland 2011 Breeding Stock Sale mare Quiet Giant, purchased by Besilu Stable. Gun Runner ran extremely well in his 2nd race off the layoff and I believe he will be even better 3rd off his layoff. So far, Gun Runner is running slightly under the radar. He is not only bred to compete at classic distances, but he is bred to improve with age and maturation.

Lani (Tapit – Heavenly Romance (JPN), by Sunday Silence; 100 points) Lani not only earned his way into the Kentucky Derby over a quality field in Dubai, over arguably an amazing filly named Polar River, but he also has traveled the furthest of any colt/gelding on this list. Lani won the UAE Derby going 1 3/16 miles, the length of the Preakness. Lani, technically, only has to improve 1/16 of a mile to reach the Kentucky Derby distance. Whether he can get around 19 other horses with his late run is another story.

Nyquist (Uncle Mo – Seeking Gabrielle, by Forestry; 130 points) I did not like Nyquist going into the Florida Derby and, actually, I like him less now. Yes, I respect the horse insanely. I saw him win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with professional poise and when I got up next to him following the race, I knew the colt was special. However, his Florida Derby performance made me question his classic ability. His weaving was a sign on leg weariness and he needs to be able to go another furlong without his legs giving out on him.

Suddenbreakingnews (Mineshaft – Uchitel, by Afleet Alex; 10 points) I like this horse a lot, and honestly, I wouldn’t be extremely upset if he missed the Kentucky Derby in favor of the Preakness and/or Belmont Stakes. However, if he can at least make 3rd in the Arkansas Derby, he will be in the starting gate at Churchill Downs. He is bred to love every amount of ground he can be given. He has a lot of growing to do, but he has a massive kick and speed to put himself where he needs to be. I have faith in him. 

Destin (Giant’s Causeway – Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer; 51 points) I have not lost faith in Destin, but I moved him down for one reason: Todd Pletcher. Pletcher has decided that this horse needs 8 weeks between the Tampa Bay Derby and the Kentucky Derby to rest and train. All the while, he sends Zulu to the Blue Grass and Outwork to the Wood Memorial. Destin is either going to train well and be okay for the Derby or he will not be fit enough and finish off the board.

Mo Tom (Uncle Mo – Caroni, by Rubiano; 32 points) Apparently Corey Lanerie retains the mount on Mo Tom after trying to be Calvin Borel in the Louisiana and getting his horse stopped multiple times on the rail. With a move like Mo Tom’s, the horse needs room to run. I have said it all along, he is not bred for classic distances, but his late move is something to behold. He will train for the Kentucky Derby and hopefully he got enough out of the disastrous Louisiana Derby to be effective May 7th.

Danzing Candy (Twirling Candy – Talkin and Singing, by Songandaprayer; 50 points) Danzing Candy has been working well toward a start in the Santa Anita Derby. Last out, he was a somewhat of a surprise winner in the San Felipe Stakes, where horses such as Exaggerator, Smokey Image, and Mor Spirit were the main focus of the race. Danzing Candy is not bred for classic distances, but his sire and damsire were both good middle distance horses, so him stretching out next out shouldn’t be too bad.

Exaggerator (Curlin – Dawn Raid, by Vindication; 26 points) After making an insanely premature move in the San Felipe, he couldn’t keep up to maintain second, taken over by Mor Spirit. Exaggerator is getting one last shot in the Santa Anita Derby before trainer Kent Desormeaux reassesses his colt. I have about had it with being burned on this guy, and this may be his last chance in my book.

In the stable…

Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect – Melody’s Spirit, by Scat Daddy; 24 points) Whitmore has his first work back since the 2nd place finish in the Rebel Stakes, covering 4F in 48.60. I am baffled on why Whitmore cannot pass horses in stakes competition. I tossed out the Delta Downs due to the track, but he has every opportunity to improve off his allowance score in both the Southwest and the Rebel. However, he cannot pass the horses. I may be dropping him off if he cannot perform convincingly in the Arkansas Derby.

Cupid (Tapit – Pretty ‘n Smart, by Beau Genius; 50 points) He showed versatility in the Rebel, taking the race start to finish in his first start in stakes company. He showed that he is not a one-dimensional horse. In his maiden before the Rebel, he came from off the pace, but then showed he can use speed to take a field on a game of catch me if you can. I don’t like him at two-turns moving forward, but he will be a strong betting contender next out.

Shagaf (Bernardini – Muhaawara, by Unbridled’s Song; 50 points) His win in the Gotham Stakes was not only unimpressive to the eye, but also on paper. He seems slow to me, but he has been training well at Belmont Park and looks to hopefully improve his record to 4-for-4 after the Wood Memorial. I am not sold on him, but he is trained by Chad Brown, who usually gets horses ready when they really need to be.

The Kentucky Derby is set to run, rain or shine, come May 7th. The 142nd Kentucky Derby follows a year where history not only was made by American Pharoah becoming a Kentucky Derby winner, but also a Triple Crown year. Whether that truly affects this year or not has yet to be seen. The top horses are truly starting to distinguish them and the best is yet to come!