In today’s horse racing landscape, it’s uncommon to see the top two competitors in any division face off before the Breeders’ Cup. However, this Saturday at Del Mar, we’re treated to exactly that.

The leading female turf horse on my list, Didia, has made her way from the East Coast to compete at Del Mar’s coastal track. She will be met by Anisette, who is second in my rankings. Their competition in the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes is poised to play a pivotal role in determining the Eclipse Award contenders.

Before we delve into the details of this exciting matchup and my predictions, let’s review the latest rankings in this week’s division.

Older Dirt Males

1. National Treasure. Despite a challenging run in the muddy conditions of the Whitney (G1), where he finished outside the top contenders, he retains his top spot. His record in less-than-ideal track conditions now stands at 0-for-3. Nevertheless, he remains the only horse in this category with two Grade 1 victories this season. He has returned to California to gear up for the California Crown (G1) at Santa Anita in September, a race previously known as the Awesome Again and before that, the Goodwood.

2. Señor Buscador. Recently finished fourth in the Pat O’Brien (G2) as a prep for the California Crown, closing from behind to end just over six lengths from the leader in the seven-furlong race. His season started strong with a narrow second-place finish to National Treasure at the Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) in January, followed by a victory in the Saudi Cup (G1) in February and a third-place finish in the Dubai World Cup (G1) in March. His sights are set on the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

3. Next. Claimed a 22-length victory in the listed Birdstone, facing only three other horses, one of whom did not finish. Collectively, these competitors had a weak record in stakes races, going 3-for-27. Despite his six-race winning streak, he is unlikely to climb the rankings soon as his next race is set for September 21 at the Greenwood in Parx. A strong showing there might lead his team to consider a Breeders’ Cup appearance, with options including the Classic and the Turf.

4. Highland Falls. Last seen delivering a standout performance in this division by winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). It wasn’t just the victory but the manner of it that was impressive; he took on Arthur’s Ride early on and gained the upper hand by the far turn, maintaining his lead to the finish. Though his final quarter was slow, this win is the highlight of his nine-race career. This season, he has won three out of six races, including the Blame (G3) at Churchill Downs in June.

5. Pyrenees. A model of consistency, he’s won three out of five races this season, including two second-place finishes in Grade 1 races—the Stephen Foster and last out, the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Next 5:

Arthur’s Ride, Skippylongstocking, Crupi, Tapit Trice, Mixto

Older Dirt Females

1. Idiomatic. Even though she was narrowly beaten by Raging Sea by a head in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga last time, her performance in defeat was more impressive than any of her victories. She engaged in a prolonged battle with Randomized, pulling ahead as they turned for home, but was overtaken at the finish line by Raging Sea. Despite this, she remains at the top and is gearing up for a highly anticipated clash with Thorpeda Anna later this fall.
2. Adare Manor. She showcased her resilience and a new burst of speed in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1), finding another gear in the stretch to claim a decisive victory over a strong field. This season, she has three wins from four starts, including two Grade 1 victories—more than anyone else in this division. She holds a strong case for the top rank but remains here for now.
3. Raging Sea. Achieved a surprising victory in the Personal Ensign, using her late surge to edge out Idiomatic at the finish. This victory adds to her three graded stakes wins this season, placing her among the few in this division who could end the season on top.
4. Randomized. She fought hard against Idiomatic in the early stages of the Personal Ensign but couldn’t maintain the pace and faded to fifth, more than 15 lengths behind. However, she claimed a victory over Idiomatic earlier this season in the Ogden Phipps (G1) and will have a chance for redemption this fall.
5. Sweet Azteca. Continued her dominance with another easy win in the Rancho Bernardo (G3) last time out. Her team is aiming for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, where she will be a strong contender on her home track. She maintains an impressive career record of 5 wins from 6 starts.
Next 5: Scylla, Honor D Lady, Shotgun Hottie, Flying Connection, Desert Dawn

3-year-old Males

1. Fierceness. Entered the Travers (G1) with several questions surrounding his capabilities but answered them emphatically, displaying determination in the stretch to fend off the filly Thorpedo Anna for a hard-fought and popular victory. He returns to the top of this division and looks set to maintain this position for the foreseeable future. His next focus is training up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where he expects a more competitive field and potentially less favorable pace conditions.
2. Dornoch. He had no valid excuses in the Travers as he tracked the slow early pace set by Batten Down. However, his victories in the Belmont and Haskell (G1) keep him in contention for the Eclipse Award, and he will be back to redeem himself. He too will train up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
3. Sierra Leone. He did as well as could be expected under the circumstances in the Travers, performing up to par despite the slow pace that did not favor his style. He remains a top contender in this division, and I believe he has a good chance to excel on a big day, particularly with a more favorable pace scenario in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
4. Mystik Dan. He struggled in the Belmont but stays near the top due to his accomplishments in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. His consistent competitiveness is a trait that many of his rivals lack. His connections are considering a trip to California to target the Malibu (G1) in December as his comeback race.
5. Forever Young. Despite limited starts in this country, he ranks here as potentially the best in the Kentucky Derby. Now 5-for-6 in his career, he has traveled extensively, winning in two countries this year. The Breeders’ Cup remains a possibility, and we might see him in the U.S. again. However, he could slide down the rankings due to inactivity in the coming weeks. He is expected to return in the Japan Dirt Classic on October 2 at Ohi Racecourse in Tokyo.
Next 5: Seize the Grey, Mindframe, Muth, Batten Down, Catching Freedom

3-year-old Fillies

1. Thorpedo Anna. She surpassed all expectations by elevating her performance significantly to finish a strong second in the Travers, causing me to reconsider my earlier doubts. I found myself cheering for her in the stretch, but it wasn’t enough. Nevertheless, I tip my hat to her; her stretch run reminded me of Zenyatta’s narrow defeat in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Her team plans to enter her in two more races this season, the Cotillion (G1) at Parx and the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Del Mar.
2. Power Squeeze. A strong winner of the Alabama (G1) last time out, narrowly beating Candied by a head. The Alabama marked her third graded-stakes victory of the season. She is set to face Thorpedo Anna in their next meeting at Parx.
3. Candied. Two consecutive solid runner-up finishes in Grade 1 races. The Alabama followed her second-place finish to Thorpedo Anna in the CCA Oaks (G1). Prior to the CCA Oaks, she claimed victory in the Lady’s Secret Stakes at Monmouth.
4. Tarifa. She did not perform well in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), possibly due to the off track conditions. However, with two graded-stakes wins this season, she remains in the top five. She may also compete in the Cotillion field.
5. Sugar Fish. Emerged as a surprise contender, dominating the Summertime Oaks (G2) with a more than nine-length victory. Prior to this, she won an optional-claimer and broke her maiden in a similar race. In her last outing, she finished out of contention and behind the older Adare Manor in the Clement L. Hirsch (G1).
Next 5: Hope Road, Nothing Like You,Ways and Means, Leslie’s Rose, Kinza

Turf Males

1. Johannes. Currently leads this category after previously being ranked sixth. His rise to the top is supported by his participation and victories in three graded stakes this season. His latest, a commanding win in the Eddie Read (G2), came against a competitive field. With a career record of 6 wins from 10 starts, he has solidified his position as a key contender in this division. As the Breeders’ Cup Mile will be held in his home state of California at Del Mar, he will not need to travel far. His next race is scheduled for the City of Hope Mile (G2) at Santa Anita on September 28.
2. Master of The Seas. He impressed in his last start by securing a victory at the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1), adding to his tally of three Grade 1 wins in his last four starts in North America. After his April victory, his team decided to rest him, planning his next start at the Fourstardave (G1) a few weeks ago, but he was scratched due to a foot bruise. This situation highlights the importance of seizing opportunities when they present themselves. He is now set to compete in the Woodbine Mile (G1) in September.
3. Measured Time. He made his comeback in the Sword Dancer (G1) but was upset, finishing as the runner-up to Far Bridge. In his only other U.S. start this season, he dominated the Manhattan (G1) on Belmont Stakes day, achieving his first Grade 1 victory.
4. Silver Knott. Never led in the Sword Dancer last time, finishing third as he too was upset by Far Bridge. Now 3-for-4 in 2024, all of his wins have come in Grade 2 events.
5. Cogburn. He remains undefeated this season with a 2-for-2 record. In his most recent start, he achieved a victory in the Jaipur (G1) and set a track-record time, though on an exceptionally fast surface. Not since Stormy Liberal a few years ago has a turf sprinter held such a high ranking. He is entered in Saturday’s Turf Sprint (G2) at Kentucky Downs.
Next 5: Carl Spackler, Far Bridge, Nation’s Pride, Naval Power, More than Looks

Turf Females

1. Didia. Her last outing in the Diana (G1) at Saratoga was somewhat underwhelming as she finished fourth, just over a length behind the winner, Whitebeam. However, her impressive victory prior to that in the New York Stakes (G1) against a strong field, along with her season opener win in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G2) in January, followed by a third-place finish in the Jenny Wiley (G1) in April, keeps her at the top. She returns this weekend in the Mabee Stakes (G2) to take on Anisette.
2. Anisette. Easily won her last start by defeating an outclassed field in the Yellow Ribbon (G2) at Del Mar. She’s 2-for-2 this season, with her other victory coming in the Gamely (G1) at Santa Anita on Memorial Day. She now faces her most challenging test of the season as Didia arrives to compete against her in the Mabee Stakes (G2) this weekend at Del Mar.
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