Will Always Dreaming’s Sloppy Kentucky Derby Win Thwart His Preakness Hopes?

By Derek Simon

There is a common perception among horse racing fans that an “off” track (one labeled anything other than “fast”) is a breeding ground for upsets.

When this belief took hold is hard to pinpoint, but surely Jim Dandy’s 100-1* upset of Triple Crown champion Gallant Fox — by a resounding six lengths, no less — over a “heavy” surface in the 1930 Travers Stakes helped make it a racetrack truism in the minds of many.

Statistically speaking, however, this “truism” doesn’t hold up. In other words, it is “fake news”.

In a study of 12,327 sole favorites (no entries) at… (more)